Niki (through October 31, 2008)

The Missouri Botanical Gardens does it again!

These lovely gardens in St Louis hosted and presented another wonderful exhibition of monumental sculpture works, strategically placed around the gardens to best set off the creations.

The Botanical gardens are beautiful at any time of the year, lush and well-tended, but are even more enticing when the paths, flower beds, and ponds and fountains are graced with sparkling colorful sculptures.

These creations are by Niki de Saint Phalle (1930-2002). Niki, born in Paris and raised in New York, has traveled extensively and worked in many countries, including France, Italy, Switzerland and Israel. She finally settled in San Diego, California, where the largest collection of her works can be found.

She was the only female member of Europe’s New Realist art movement, a contemporary of American Pop Art. Niki, inspired by Gaudi, created playful, larger-than-life mosaic creations, using materials such as fiberglass, stones, glass and mirrors. Her reputation really began in the 1960s with her famous “nanas”: brightly painted, oversize female figures made of wire and fabric that soon became a symbol of female empowerment.

Much of Niki’s work since then revolved around 4 themes:

*Animals. Fantastic animals fill Niki’s work. She felt that her child-like side was the artist, and she loved to have children play on her sculptures. In the Gardens, children can climb on many of the sculptures, especially the animals.

*Black heroes. Niki created the black heroes series later in life for her bi-racial great-grandson.

*Totems. Inspired by Native American traditions, Niki always got advice from the National Museum of the American Indian before making her totem sculptures.

*Nanas. “Nanas” is French slang for “chicks” or “babes” and these female figures are probably her best-known series.

 The Niki exhibition at the Botanical gardens is the first time so many of her works have been seen in St Louis. There are 40 monumental mosaic sculptures, some from each of the 4 themes above.

We went last weekend, and the whole garden was extremely busy, as that weekend the 17^th annual Best of Missouri Market also took place. So, many people took advantage of the gorgeous weather to get out and do fun stuff. As always, the gardens are beautiful, green and lush and bright with late summer and early fall flowers. The huge Niki creations are dotted around, in basically the same positions where the Chupungu exhibits had been placed in an earlier exhibition.

The fountain waters just inside the entrance sprinkled “Arbre serpents”, the first taste of these bright whimsical creations, which are lovely and bring a smile to your face. Various food stalls around the fountain did a brisk business, especially at lunchtime.

These Niki sculptures are cheery, a bright splash of color in the already colorful garden. We liked them all, especially the lions, the alligator and the skull. Her “Nanas” are really interesting, large and round, very reminiscent of some of the sculptures in the Stravinsky Fountain in Paris.

The Market set up some agricultural themed booths around the Kids Space---making apple cider, a huge pumpkin patch, a From Farm to Food tent, cockroach races. All a lot of fun, with big bales of hay and plenty of cute scarecrows. The actual market was set up in the large open space at the front entrance by the Visitors Center: huge tents crowded with stalls selling flowers, handcrafts, soaps, honey, salsa, sausages, bread, cheeses, and much more.

[gallery]

The PiRate Pro Ratings

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year's scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year's data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

The Mean Ratings

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents' rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970's and 1980's.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

The Bias Ratings

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

NFL Previews-Week Six

Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

PiRate:         New Orleans by 15 

Mean:           New Orleans by 7

Bias:             New Orleans by 10

Vegas:        New Orleans by 7     -285/+245  

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Over 37 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 13-point teaser

Oakland has a new coach and is coming off a bye week, whereas New Orleans played Monday night.  How will the Raiders respond?  Also, how much can Darren McFadden play?  These are major issues, and I wouldn't begin to pick a side in this one, even in teasers.

The Saints' defense cannot be counted on to stop enemy offenses for 60 minutes.  Given an extra week to tweak their offense, I expect the Raiders to score at least 17 points and as much as 25 points this week.  New Orleans is in a must-win situation this week, as a 2-4 start probably puts them too far behind in their division to dig themselves out.  Therefore, I tend to believe New Orleans will find a way to win, but I don't feel confident enough to pick them at -285 in a money line selection.  I am confident that Drew Brees can pass for 300 yards and direct the offense to 20 or more points, so teasing the Over is how to play this game.

Cincinnati (0-5) at New York Jets (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in the upper 60's

PiRate:         Jets by 9    

Mean:           Jets by 6

Bias:             Jets by 11

Vegas:        Jets by 5½         -240/+200   

Ov/Un:        44½  

Strategy:     Jets -240, Jets +4 ½ in 10-point teaser, Jets +7½ in 13-point teaser

The Jets had a bye last week, while Cincinnati had to play a rough game at Dallas.  The 0-5 Bengals must play on the road again this week with a wounded quarterback.  Even if Carson Palmer plays, he won't be close to 100% effective.  The Jets' defense ranks in the bottom half of the league after giving up 83 points in their previous two contests, but I expect a vast improvement following a week off.  Brett Favre should be at peak performance as well, so I like the Jets to win outright.  5½ points is tricky, so I'll go the money line route in this one. 

Only one thing worries me this week: there are still four NFL teams looking for their first win of the season in week six.  How many times in the past have four teams continued to remain winless six weeks into the season?  The odds are heavily in favor of one or more of those winless teams winning this week. So, the 13-point teaser gives the Jets more than a TD at home, which I fell is quite safe.

Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

PiRate:         Chicago by 7     

Mean:           Chicago by 5

Bias:             Chicago by 4

Vegas:        Chicago by 3      -145/+135  

Ov/Un:        43½  

Strategy:     Atlanta +3, Atlanta +13 in 10-point teaser, Atlanta +16 in 13-point teaser

Atlanta is the top surprise in the NFC five weeks into the season.  New coach Mike Smith has the Falcons in the playoff hunt and a win in this game might be enough to guarantee the dirty birds a winning season.  The schedule is not that difficult, and at 4-2, it is easy to see 9-7 or even better for this team.

Chicago finds itself alone in first in the old black and blue division.  The Bears are not that far from being 5-0, losing by three at Carolina and in overtime by three to Tampa Bay. 

Teams that play consecutive road games and win the first one usually bounce some in the second road game and perform worse than they did in the previous game.  Many teams play much better at home after playing consecutive road games.  Both of these factors are in play this week, so I like the home team to cover in a close game.  As a double-digit ‘dog in teaser plays, Atlanta looks safe.  Chicago destroyed a weak Detroit team last week, and they will face a much tougher opponent this week.  The Falcons will rough them up, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Matt Ryan have his first 200 yard passing game.  The Bears might be able to shut down Michael Turner, or at least limit his effectiveness, but that will be at the expense of giving Ryan more holes to find in the intermediate zones. 

Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

PiRate:         Minnesota by 25      

Mean:           Minnesota by 17

Bias:             Minnesota by 19

Vegas:        Minnesota by 13       -600/+450  

Ov/Un:        45½  

Strategy:     Minnesota -3 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota Pk in 13-point teaser, Over 32½ in 13-point teaser

This game scares me a little.  Minnesota enjoyed a big win Monday night in New Orleans, while Detroit was reduced to fodder at home against the Bears Sunday.  The Lions have nothing to lose from here on out, as they are basically competing with the Rams for the rights to Tim Tebow, Beanie Wells, or whoever is deemed the top draft choice in 2009.

Minnesota is just one game out of first place in the NFC North, where 9-7 could easily win the division title.  Obviously, a loss to the lowly Lions would kill their chances.  The Vikings have an easier schedule left than the Packers, and a win Sunday could possible propel them into a first place tie.

Normally, you could expect Minnesota to come out flat in this situation and lay an egg.  If Detroit was as good as less than mediocre Cleveland, I would pick the Lions as an upset possibility this week.  However, with Jon Kitna likely out for this game and Calvin Johnson probably playing at less than 100% strength, what weapons can Detroit use effectively? 

Adrian Peterson is going to think he is facing the Baylor defense when he played at Oklahoma.  Detroit cannot stop average backs, so expect Peterson to have a memorable day.

St. Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature around 70

PiRate:         Washington by 39   

Mean:           Washington by 23

Bias:             Washington by 29

Vegas:        Washington by 13½       -625/+450   

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     St. Louis +23½ in 10-point teaser, St. Louis +26½ in 13-point teaser, Washington -3½ in 10-point teaser, Washington -½ in 13-point teaser, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser   

Could this be a mini-trap game?  The Rams find themselves in the same situation as the Raiders this week.  They are coming off a bye with a new head coach to play a road game against a team that was extended for 60 minutes the previous game.  There are two differences between the former L.A. teams. The Raiders at least can play a little defense, whereas the Rams play matador defense.  However, the Rams still have Marc Bulger who is capable of throwing for 300 yards and leading his team on a scoring binge.  That's a remote possibility at best, but the Redskins have to cover by two touchdowns against this possibility.

I won't go with either team at + or -13½.  However, both sides look playable in a 10 or 13-point teaser.  The Redskins have yet to blow out an opponent, so asking them to cover at 23½ or 26½ points is a big stretch.  Likewise, at -3½ or -½, the home team looks great.  Teasing the totals looks promising this week.  The Rams have given up 31 or more points in every game this year, and even if they improve by 14 points off their 37 points per game allowed average, they should score at least 14 themselves this week.    

Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible in the 2^nd half, light wind, temperature in mid 80's and likely dropping if rain occurs

PiRate:         Pick      

Mean:           Pick

Bias:             Carolina by 2

Vegas:        Tampa Bay by 1       -120/+110  

Ov/Un:        36½  

Strategy:     Tampa Bay -1, Tampa Bay +9 in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +12 in 13-point teaser, Over 26½ in 10-point teaser, Over 23½ in 13-point teaser 

This game is one where you need to check back Friday evening to peruse the injury report.  Will Brian Griese be able to play Sunday?  If not, then what difference will it make for Jeff Garcia to start?  Garcia has played in two games this year.  The Bucs lost both.  Griese has started and finished three games this year; the Bucs won all three.  The stats of the two QBs are about the same, but Tampa Bay just doesn't score as many points when Garcia runs the offense.

Carolina in week six is a good touchdown or more improved from the team that opened the season.  The Panthers could take a commanding lead in the NFC South with a win and a Falcons' loss this week.

Therefore, I recommend that you use the above sides' strategies only if you are missing one piece of a three or four team parlay.  I do have more confidence in the totals' teasers.

Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly Cloudy, light wind, temperature in the mid 80's

PiRate:         Miami by 12      

Mean:           Miami by 1

Bias:             Miami by 7

Vegas:        Houston by 3     -150/+130  

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     Houston +7 in 10-point teaser, Under 55 in 10-point teaser (but not so hot on these two)

Like the previous game, I am not so hot on this game.  Houston is still a team in flux following the hurricane.  The Texans have the talent to beat Miami by 10 points, but some of the players may be about ready to fold on this season.

Miami is a team on the rise.  The Dolphins have just enough talent and a nice gimmick offense to sneak out of town with their third consecutive victory.  I think they have a 60% chance of winning this game outright, but I believe if they win, the Texans have a 75% chance of losing by less than a touchdown.

I think Miami will try to control the clock and make this game a lower than expected outcome.  Again, I warn only to use the strategies above if you need a third or fourth part of a parlay.

Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

PiRate:         Baltimore by 6  

Mean:           Indianapolis by 1

Bias:             Pick

Vegas:        Indianapolis by 3½        -190/+160   

Ov/Un:        38½  

Strategy:     Indianapolis -3½, Indianapolis, +6½ in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +9½ in 13-point teaser, Over 25½ in 13-point teaser   

This game looks like the top play of the week.  Baltimore just played two emotional games against two physical teams and lost both games.  The come into this game with numerous injuries to key personnel (Willis McGahee, Ray Lewis, Fabian Washington, Derrick Mason).  Even if they all play, they won't be nearly as effective as they normally would play.

Peyton Manning now has four games under his belt following his knee surgery.  He missed all of the preseason, so this game is almost like his normal opening game.  His stats have slowly improved as the season has progressed, and the Colts' offense has gotten a little better each week.  If Washington cannot go for the Ravens, Manning will pick apart the Baltimore secondary.  As long as he gets protection, Indianapolis should move the ball more effectively than any Raven opponent to date.

I foresee a Colt double digit win this week.  Their real liability is their run defense, but Baltimore may have to go without McGahee or at the best with him playing on an injured ankle. Le'Ron McClain isn't going to rush for 100 yards and exploit that liability.

I'm going with the Colts to win this one by a score similar to 24-13.  So, my strategies for this game include using the Colts straight up and in teasers, as well as teasing the Over with the belief that Indianapolis will continue to improve offensively and be opportunistic defensively.  

Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1)

Time:           4:05PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible, considerable winds, temperature in the mid 50's

PiRate:         Denver by 9

Mean:           Denver by 2

Bias:             Denver by 5

Vegas:        Denver by 3 -175/+155  

Ov/Un:        48½  

Strategy:     Jacksonville +13 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +16 in 13-point teaser, Under 58½ in 10-point teaser, Under 61½ in 13-point teaser

The Broncos' offense has taken a step back in recent weeks after looking more like the 2007 Patriots at the beginning of the season.  Not having Selvin Young, Ryan Torain, Tony Scheffler, and maybe Eddie Royal on hand this week isn't going to make things any better.  Denver will have to pass, pass, pass to a group of less experienced players, and Jacksonville will be able to adjust their blitz packages to take advantage of this fact.

The Jaguars will continue to try to control the clock with the short passing game and power running in short yardage situations.  It's hard to be perfect for long drives all day long on an opponent's field, so they must play better defense if they plan on winning this game. 

This game isn't far from being a tossup given the injuries on the Broncos' side of the field.  If you take the underdog in a teaser, you get a nice amount of points.  Denver might have a 55-60% chance of winning this game, but they have maybe a 10-15% chance of winning by more than two touchdowns.  I'll take the 13 and 16 points in the teasers.  Because I believe Jacksonville will try to shorten the game, I like teasing the Under as well.  If the forecasted rain comes, it could help us a little here.

Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in upper 50's

PiRate:         Green Bay by 15      

Mean:           Green Bay by 4

Bias:             Green Bay by 4

Vegas:        Seattle by 2       -120/+110  

Ov/Un:        45½  

Strategy:     Green Bay +12 in 10-point teaser, Green Bay +15 in 13-point teaser, Over 35½ in 10-point teaser, Over 32½ in 13-point teaser 

We have two teams going in the same direction in this game, but unfortunately it is the wrong direction.  Seattle was the odds-on favorite to win the NFC West, but injuries have made them a mere shell of their former selves.  They never really play well on the East Coast, but they also lost at home to San Francisco.

Green Bay has dropped three games in a row, and the Packer defense is not getting the job done.  They cannot give up 28 points per game and think about the playoffs much less having a winning season.  Even Brett Favre would be struggling to win games if he was directing the Packers' offense and having to score 30 points every week to win.

I believe the loser of this game will be out of the playoff hunt, so it becomes a must-win game for both teams.  The players on both sides probably realize this, so I expect a great game that goes down to the wire.  As I previously stated, I like teasing the underdog when I perceive a possible tossup game.  It's like getting extra points.  Since I don't have much faith in these two defenses, it's understood that I would like teasing the Over as well.

Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, considerable wind, temperature in mid to upper 60's

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 12  

Mean:           Philadelphia by 7

Bias:             Philadelphia by 6

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 5     -230/+190  

Ov/Un:        42½  

Strategy:     San Francisco +5, San Francisco +15 in 10-point teaser, San Francisco +18 in 13-point teaser, Over 32½ in 10-point teaser, Over 29½ in 13-point teaser 

Philadelphia's 2008 plight can be summed up by reading the book A Tale of Two Cities.  When Brian Westbrook has been healthy, it has been the best of times in the city of brotherly love.  When Westbrook has been injured, it has been the worst of times in Philly.

Westbrook is out for this game, so I expect something close to the worst of times for the Eagles.  Add to this trouble that Donovan McNabb is far from healthy and Wide out Reggie Brown will miss the game.  Former star Kevin Curtis should finally get on the field for the first time this year, but he won't be ready to have a 100-yard receiving day right out of the box.  I just don't see the Eagles topping 20 points in this game.  Against a weaker than average 49er defense, they will score more than 14, but 17 points may be about their limit unless the defense and/or special teams contribute to the scoring load.

San Francisco is one of the hardest teams to figure out.  J.T. O'Sullivan has proven he is a legitimate starter in the NFL and is running the Mike Martz offense almost as competently as Marc Bulger and Kurt Warner ran it.  Frank Gore is keeping defenses honest.  The 49ers just cannot stop anybody.  Even a wounded Eagles' offense should pick up 300-350 yards and the aforementioned 17 points.

I am going with the 49ers to win this game for a couple of reasons.  First, this is a must-win game for them.  At 2-4, they will be in too much of a hole to make up in a division where only the winner is going to qualify for a playoff spot.  Second, Philadelphia is 10 points weaker without Westbrook than they would be if he was healthy.  Third, Philadelphia is making a cross-country trip a week after being extended to the final gun against Washington, while San Francisco is at home for the second week in a row.  Finally, a loss in this game will start the ball rolling for the dismissal of Coach Mike Nolan. 

I see San Francisco playing their best game of the year this week and pulling off the upset.  So, I like them straight up at +5½ as well as in teasers.  I look for them to win 24-17, so I like teasing the Over as well.  If you can find a money line that has SF +220 or higher, then it might be worth a little bit of a gamble, but I won't pursue that at +190.

Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, considerable wind, temperature in mid to upper 70's

PiRate:         Pick      

Mean:           Dallas by 1

Bias:             Dallas by 2

Vegas:        Dallas by 5         -220/+180  

Ov/Un:        50

Strategy:     Arizona +15 in 10-point teaser, Arizona +18 in 13-point teaser

Dallas has played a wee bit below their predicted expectations the last two weeks.  Arizona has lived up to their billing as a force to be reckoned with this year.  The Cardinals have the lead in the NFC West, and it looks like 9-7 could get them into the playoffs as division winner.

The Cardinals' two home wins look more impressive now that Miami is playing so much better.  They look strong enough to beat just about anybody at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Dallas has the potential to go on the road and win by 14 or more points, but if they continue to play like they have the best two weeks, they could also find themselves in trouble in this game.

I am going with the percentages and progressions here in this game.  Give me the home team and more than two touchdowns, and I will be happy, especially when I get Kurt Warner and more than two touchdowns.

New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3)

Time:           8:15PM EDT

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Sunny, then clear after dark, considerable wind, temperature falling from mid 60's to upper 50's

PiRate:         San Diego by 12      

Mean:           San Diego by 4

Bias:             San Diego by 3

Vegas:        San Diego by 5         -220/+200  

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     None

I do not like the two prime time games this week.  This game is between two very inconsistent teams.  Which New England team will we see this week?  Will it be the team that struggled to edge the hapless Chiefs and saw the Dolphins blow them off their home field, or will it be the team that held Brett Favre and the Jets to 10 points and won all the way across the country last week?

San Diego keeps finding ways to lose games, but they also scored like they were a basketball team in their prior prime time game.

I'll leave this one alone.  It is too risky.

New York Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3)

Time:           8:30PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling through the 60's

PiRate:         Giants by 16     

Mean:           Giants by 9

Bias:             Giants by 14

Vegas:        Giants by 7½     -325/+265   

Ov/Un:        43½  

Strategy:     None

Sooner or later, Cleveland is going to break through with a big game on offense.  They had a week off to prepare for this game, and they have too many weapons on the attack side not to bust loose eventually.  I watched these two teams play in the preseason, and the Browns gave the Giants 23 points in gifts yet still lost by three.  Obviously, the preseason is not an accurate gauge, but I believe the Browns are itching to show the defending Super Bowl champions their best effort.

The one thing that worries me is the health of Kellen Winslow.  He may not be able to go Monday night, but even if he misses the game, I can still see Cleveland having their best game of the year.

The Giants can still win this game by 10 points even if the Browns play their best game of the year.  Their defense is starting to look like one of those great stop troops of yesteryear.  You know the type I am talking about; I'm referring to those defenses that have been immortalized with a fancy nickname like the Purple People Eaters, the Fearsome Foursome, the Steel Curtain, the Doomsday Defense, the No-name Defense, etc.  They are on pace to give up less than 200 points (that equates to less than 175 points when comparing to the teams from the 14-game schedule era).

Two things worry me this week about the Giants.  First, even with a tough taskmaster like Tom Coughlin on the sidelines, the Giants won with such ease against Seattle last week and can only be a little too cocky this week.  They will definitely bounce some.  Second, New York has played three home games and just one road game, which was at St. Louis.  This is their first road game against a team that has enough talent to score points against their defense.

The problem with this game is that there are too many variables.  I like the Browns' prospects in this game.  I think they have a better than expected chance of keeping this one close and having a shot at the big upset.  However, if this isn't the week they awaken from their offensive slumber, this game could be another snoozer for the fans.  It isn't one to consider in my strategies.

The Imaginary Bank Account Makes It Five-for-Five

It wasn't pretty, but after the smoke cleared Sunday night in Jacksonville, I was a winner for the fifth consecutive week.  My picks finished 7-4 for the week, running my record to 34-16-3 for the season (68%).

Due to the fact that I lost a money line pick, my profit was only $80, bringing my year-to-date profit to $1,345.00.  That gives me a return on investment of 25.4%.  The come from behind victory by Washington was the killer, as if Philadelphia had held on in the fourth quarter, the difference in 7-4 and 8-3 would have been an extra $360.  Oh well, I'll just have to be glad with being able to maintain 100% winning weeks a month and a half into the season.

Last week, it was the straight wagers that won for me, as I went 4-1 in those five picks, while going just 3-3 in the 10-point teasers.  I have noticed that a lot of my teaser losses have come about because one team or one total in the parlay failed to cover by one or two points.  It kills you to watch a team elect to go for a touchdown late in the game and miss on fourth down when a field goal would have covered your wager, but such is life.  Losing by one or two points should be rectifiable by playing some 13-point teasers.  Of course, it could just be the new way to lose by one or two points, and I still have a 100% record of winning weeks, so I could be setting myself up for disaster.  Remember this!  I don't really have anything monetary to worry about since I don't actually wager with money.  So, I can gamble a little with four-team, 13-point teaser parlays and sleep comfortably this weekend. 

Here are my wagers for week six (all wagered to win $100):

1. New York Jets -240 vs. Cincinnati

2. Atlanta +3 vs. Chicago

3. Tampa Bay -1 vs. Carolina

4. Indianapolis -3½ vs. Baltimore

5. San Francisco +5 vs. Philadelphia

6. 10-point teaser

       A. Atlanta +13 vs. Chicago

       B. Minnesota -3 vs. Detroit

       C. Washington -3½ vs. St. Louis

7. 10-point teaser

       A. Tampa Bay +9 vs. Carolina

       B. Indianapolis +6½ vs. Baltimore

       C. Jacksonville +13 vs. Denver

8. 10-point teaser

       A. Green Bay +12 vs. Seattle

       B. San Francisco +15 vs. Philadelphia

       C. Tampa Bay & Carolina Over 26½

9. 10-point teaser

       A. Green Bay & Seattle Over 35½

       B. San Francisco & Philadelphia Over 32½

       C. Arizona +15 vs. Dallas

10. 13-point teaser

       A. New York Jets +7½ vs. Cincinnati

       B. Atlanta +16 vs. Chicago

       C. Minnesota Pk vs. Detroit

       D. St. Louis +26½ vs. Washington

11. 13-point teaser

       A. Detroit & Minnesota Over 32½

       B. Washington -½ vs. St. Louis

       C. Tampa Bay +12 vs. Carolina

       D. Indianapolis & Baltimore Over 25½

12. 13-point teaser

       A. Tampa Bay & Carolina Over 23½

       B. Indianapolis +9½ over Baltimore

       C. Jacksonville +16 vs. Denver

       D. Green Bay +15 vs. Seattle

13. 13-point teaser

       A. Green Bay & Seattle Over 32½

       B. San Francisco +18 vs. Philadelphia

       C. San Francisco & Philadelphia Over 29½

       D. Arizona +18 vs. Dallas              

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won't lose a penny if all nine wagers lose this week, so you shouldn't risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

For those of you who would like to see the research:

1 Voter, 72 Registrations: 'ACORN Paid Me In Cash & Cigs'
Jeane MacIntosh
New York Post
October 10, 2008

Missouri Officials Suspect Fake Voter Registration
Bill Draper
Associated Press
October 8, 2008

Local 2 Investigates Dead Voters
KPRC Local
October 8, 2008

ACORN Office In Vegas Raided In Voter-Fraud Probe
Oskar Garcia
Associated Press Writer
October 7, 2008

More Milwaukee Voter Fraud... Name That Party?
Warner Todd Huston
NewsBusters
September 1, 2008

Voter Registration Fraud In Florida
Judicial Watch Blog
September 29, 2008

ACORN Fraud in New Mexico Again
Clarice Feldman
American Thinker
September 17, 2008

More ACORN Fraud (What Else Is New?)
Clarice Feldman
American Thinker
September 14, 2008

Another Voter Fraud Investigation For ACORN
Patrick Casey
American Thinker
August 28, 2008

Missing Headlines: Leftwing Voter Fraud Guilty Plea
Ed Lasky
The American Thinker
October 31, 2007

A Voter Named Abortion Alternative Registered In Missouri
Clarice Feldman
The American Thinker
November 5, 2006

Fraud Alleged In St. Louis Voter Sign-Up
Jeff Douglas
Associated Press Writer
October 11, 2006

 Out Musician/Singer/Songwriter, Josh Zuckerman  is talented and edgy. His music is an eclectic mix of country, rock and pop that is uniquely JZ. His single Out from Under was the #1 requested video on Logo.

Known for his charismatic stage performances and his music harmonies, Zuckerman is a rising force in music. He has already had sold out concerts of over 40,000 people.

Zuckerman was raised in in St Louis Missouri. His music continues to be a reflection not only of his growth musically but of his life. His first album was A Totally New Sensation.  His second album was Out From Under. His newest single is called Be Real which is my favorite.

Josh Zuckerman Official Website: www.joshzuckerman.com

Its been an immensely fascinating year for me to deeply observe the last fragments of my dying neighborhood.   I've watched its last residents move on, and then come back to visit in tears.  I watched as abandoned homes were torched to blackened holes.   I've befriended the demolition crews who took my own home and learned of the human side of some of the Lambert officials.  I've stopped and talked to former residents who scavenge the plots of their beloved homeland.  I've been chased out by fast cars of wicked people up to no good.  I've been followed around by yellow Lambert trucks who think I am up to no good.   I've been waved at and begged to for directions on how to get out of this scary, desolate place they accidentially wandered into.  I've helped a carload of teenagers try and fix a tire in the night.  I've yelled at a man digging up a beautiful maple tree in the backyard of one of my favorite homes.   I've driven through in a hurry 'just to see.'   I've sat for hours on the grassy hillsides listening to the eerie silence in the minutes between the hallowed sounds of jets turbines close overhead.    After all this, I am still inexplicibly drawn to the area.

I've also been surprised and humbled by the large numbers of visitors to this modest site.  At first, I figured this would be just a place to keep notes about my time in Carrollton's last years.  Instead it has become a calling to the residents to learn whats new and whats left in Carrollton.  Its inspired me to not just keep a blog but to write a book about this particular place and the effects of eminent domain on families and communities in general.   I have learned so much about the community already and I have so much more to learn about the fascinating and humble history of the area.  I cannot thank enough all the people who have read this site, written to me, commented, and contributed their own stories and images of life growing up in this unique town.

Access to the majority of the neighborhood will soon be cut off.    The gates, the band-aid on this gushing wound, are going up on more streets than I had predicted.   In the past couple weeks, I found it amusing how I could drive around and lazily end up on the backside of one of their two-screw aluminum traps.  We joked about the stupidity of the gate's placements.  For example, they put a gate on Turon Court-  A street that was only 1/16th of a mile at most, both ends intersecting into Celburne.  It had maybe 5 houses on the whole street, yet they gated both ends of this tiny loop.  In the coming days, however, the only streets that will remain open are Woodford Way, part of Celburne, Brampton, and Hemet for access to O'Connor Park.   My own street of Brumley now has poles, ready for its set of gates.

They are going to leave the remaining houses to rot away behind the gates.   Hide it from the public and it all will go away.   The argument could be made that it is Lambert's land and if they choose to close off the streets, it is their business.  In fact, I truly do understand and support that notion.  I would completely be ready for the street closures if Lambert were to do one thing... finish this and demolish all the remaining homes first.   Behind the gates, some of them could sit for years without notice.   What a sad and demoralizing fate for the owners of those homes who already went through so much to lose them in the first place.   Once again, Lambert fails to do the respectful and honorable thing for the residents they threw out.   Just like the new runway itself, Lambert's gates on the streets of Carrollton are a short-sighted plan guaranteed to create more problems in the end.

My postings to this site will probably be more erradic given that access will be extremely limited and the grinding halt of any other activity in the area.  It doesn't feel like there is a conclusion to this story yet, not at least while there are still houses standing.  We only know snippets of the possible fate of Carrollton as a Chinese air-shipping yard, but even that can change given this fretful economy.

Meanwhile, I will continue to organize the information I have gathered, and wait and see what will happen.One last thing I've been sitting on for a while.  There is one last landowner in Carrollton, a family friend of ours.   When he bought property in Carrollton for Fischer & Frichtel to build, he neglected to build on one strip of land he purchased.  That particular bit of land has its own address separate from his adjacent home address, which was destroyed last winter.   Evidentially, Lambert was unaware of this land deed, and he did not go out of his way to make mention of it until demo crews attempted to remove some of his property.  As far as I know he still has the title to this bit.  I think gating off his street might be a tad bit illegal since he technically still owns his land.   Beautiful indeed.

On October 7, 2008 The Kooks from Brighton, England visited The Pageant Theater in St. Louis. Warming up the crowd were The Whigs from Athens, Georgia. I'm a bit short on time today, so you get less words and more eye-candy:

Find out more about them here:

www.thewhigs.com

www.thekooks.co.uk

Thursday's debate between the Vice Presidential candidates revealed more than policy positions and campaign talking points.  It provided the American people an opportunity to observe the capabilities and intellect of each potential second-in-command.  First, it illuminated the psychological shrewdness and political acumen of Governor Sarah Palin.  And secondly, while exhibiting Senator Joe Biden's years of experience in public service, it also tacitly exposed a disconnect between generations with statements from the Senator.

After weeks of punches from the media and borderline slander from the Obama campaign and its surrogates, Governor Palin proved that she is unflappable.  She is a tough-skinned politician with a soft appearance and, therefore, lies her lioness shrewdness.

Attempts by the media and the opposition to discredit Palin's abilities and, thus putting to question the adroitness of McCain's decision making, Thursday's event played right into the hands of the McCain-Palin campaign.  This rumor mongering led to lowered expectations of Palin's ability to demonstrate her depth of understanding on key issues.  Americans awaited a mediocre performance, but Palin executed an almost flawless show of command, fearlessness and intellect.  She was more than able to speak to the details of world affairs, as well as the economy.  Her experience as governor provided an in-depth understanding of budgeting, managing, and negotiating.  Additionally, she surpassed Biden on issues such as energy production, standing up against big oil companies and ecological issues.  Palin was not shy to tackle head-on any of the questions posed to her, nor was she reluctant to confront Biden on his incorrect comments.  She pivoted when needed and punched when necessary.

To some, Sarah Palin entered the stage as a lamb. But to most, she exited the stage as a lioness.

Having spent 35 years in the political arena, Senator Biden proved to be an effective speaker.  However, his performance seemed to lack the fiery rhetoric for an impassioned offensive.  Instead, he appeared many times to be on the defensive - grasping for answers to deflect Palin's piercing points.   Biden aimed some successful lobs at McCain's record, some of which Palin did not bother to readdress.  The Senator also put a new spin on his admiration of Obama and Obama's leadership abilities.  This was a new stance which was inconsistent with Biden's earlier statements prior to his acceptance as Obama's running mate.  For instance, Biden had stated that, in his opinion, Obama was not fit to be Commander-in-Chief.  He also chided Obama for trying to cut off funds for the troops.  Biden's sudden change of heart should certainly give one pause.  Has Biden's intense desire to be Vice President caused him to completely dismiss his prior convictions and opinions about the young, inexperienced Senator Obama?  One wonders.

With an astonishing tally of almost 70 million viewers, this Vice Presidential debate recorded the largest viewing audience in history (second only to the 1992 Presidential debate between Clinton-Bush-Perot). This fact exhibits that, whether by conviction, concern or curiosity, the American public is engaged in this year's election.  As many pundits have stated, this is the most important election in our lifetimes.  And that is...Why It Matters.

some of you may know that John Waters is in St. Louis this weekend. Tyler has been asked to perform in a burlesque show for him this weekend. now sure, i love John Waters, who doesn't? i would love to meet the man who has made such fabulous movies as Hairspray (the original), Pink Flamingos, Serial Mom, and Cecil B. Demented. however, there is something more at stake here. John Waters is personal friends with Patty Hearst, who he puts in many of his movies. if you know me at all, you know that Patty Hearst is to me what Sarah Palin is to little Republican boys hitting puberty. i even have THE TATTOO to prove it.

my dream of kidnapping Patty Hearst is one step closer to fruition! and if i can't kidnap her, then i will be forced to convince her with my oozing charm to hire me as her personal secretary. we can do great things together, patty, just give me a chance!

St. Louis played host to its own Oktoberfest celebration this past weekend in historic Soulard (about a mile South of the Arch for you out-of-towners).

Highlights of the 2008 St. Louis Oktoberfest were $8 liters of:

Budweiser American Ale
Hofbräu Hefeweizen
Hofbräu Oktoberfestbeir
Spaten Optimator
Warsteiner Oktoberfest
Warsteiner Verum Premium

Budweiser American Ale took home best domestic, well, because it was only up against Bud, Bud Light and some beer with Pumpkin Spiced ice cream or bourbon or something.

Best In Show had to go to the Spaten Optimator for its legendary stance amongst beers (the flagship beer of the Spaten Brewery in Munich, all frothy Spatens adhere with the Bavarian Purity Law of 1516 or the 'Reinheitsgebot'); and for its ability to defeat Megatron at a moments notice.

Advertising was pretty simple for Soulard's Oktoberfest (beer, brats and boobs; never question the effectiveness of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

Billboard advertisements littered Highways 44 & 55 with Germany's (or Johnny's) finest:

Keep it simple, keep it beer,

mjb

The picture you see here was taken by me from my hotel room window. It was one of the best views I've ever had in a hotel. I've never had much interest in the St. Louie Arch, but there was something about it outside my window that caused me to transfix and stare for long periods of time at the arch as well as long, reflective gazes of the mighty Mississippi with