1. At first I was going to take the CAPM exam because my job title is not Project Manager. I am a teacher. Two Project Managent training professionals told me to reconsider because even though my title is not Project Manager, I have done projects in my position as a teacher. They encouraged me to think hard about the projects that I had managed and also to use the online registration form.
   I joined the PMI and started reading the PMBOK Guide, which you receive when you join PMI. I didn't quite totally understand what it was talking about. So I stopped at chapter 5, but also read chapter 12.
2. I purchased the PMPrepcast. Things got clearer, but I still needed help.
3. I took the Learning Tree course called Project Management Professiional (PMP) Exam  Preparation. The PMBOK got way clearer, but still I needed a little more coaching.
4. I took a sample 200 question exam that Learning Tree gave at the end of the course.
5. At the completion of the class, I registered for the exam. After my approval, I scheduled my test date for the first available day that included a 2 week lag.
6. I read the PMBOK Guide 1.5 more times.
7. I took the sample Learning Tree exam again.
8. I continued to listen to the PMPrecast and things got a WHOLE lot clearer. I started to understand that I was definitely managing projects and that there is a language associated with the steps that I was taking to complete the project.
9. I also read sections of Kathy Schwalbe's Information Technology Project Management and Introduction to Project Managment books. I used these books to learn more about schedules, earned value formulas, and real world project management.
10. During the week before the exam I took a short sample exam on the Internet. I really didn't like the way they asked the questions and I didn't like the fact that there were 5 answer choices for each question. I stopped investigating the sample exams on the Internet and stuck with understanding any questions I got wrong on the Learning Tree exam. 
11. I took the exam on July 10, 2008 and passed.

I would like to give a lot of credit to the Applied Concepts episodes of the PMPrepcast. These were the MOST valuable. The rest of the episodes were also necessary, but the Applied Concepts covered topics that were not covered in detail in the PMBOK Guide but are part of the Project Management Body of Knoweldge such as Virtual Teams, Motivation, Leadership, Earned Value, Risk Attitudes, Authority, and Team Development.

Source: fatwallet

I am looking to mentor people in IT architecture. Part of the Open Group IT Architect Certification (ITAC) requirements is ‘giveback’ to the profession and mentoring is one of the most important. I have experience as an application, integration and enterprise architect with particular technology experience in SOA and most IBM software

Mentoring is not just about technology, it is also about careers, coaching and soft skills…

I also have quite a few certifications which i can help with too, including TOGAF, ITAC, Sun Enterprise Architect and Project Management Professional

I am also a dab hand at reworking CVs and Resumes...

If you are interested in discussing mentoring please contact me at chris_eaton@uk.ibm.com

I have often found that the key to any endeavor, including Project Management or Coaching, lies around building a good relationship. Think back to the most effective teams or relationships you have ever had. Did it have characteristics such as?

· Mutual trust

· Honesty and integrity

· Confidentiality

· Valuing differences

· Having fun

· Being respected (I once worked on a team where everyone was given a ping pong gun. If they caught anyone disrespecting another, they were allowed to shoot them).

· Clearly defined "SMART: goals. (S = specific, M= measureable, A = attainable, R = realistic and T = time based)

· Responsibility that is expected in all the members of the team's work - there is no such thing as "It's not my job"

· Shared responsibility, accountability and rewards tied to performance

· Frequent celebrations when called for

· Ability to make decisions (the only way to learn is to take risks)

· Mutual support and mentoring

· AND the most important thing is a Leader who leads, sets a vision and allows sharing of ideas from all team members

Team Spirit is vital to the making of a team that works. It is the ability to work on ones’ own, feel free to ask for help and share the glory of your combined work. That is the reason why team communication and team building is so important.

When I first start a team, I have everyone take an assessment and share the results with each other. Everyone communicates differently and if you know the style of your team member it will go a long way in making that relationship successful. I also take the assessment and share it with the team. Pretty soon it gets to be fun when person A witnesses Person B reacting to Person C in a way that is uncomfortable for person C. If it is caught in the moment, people can laugh about it and not let it get in their way. Some teams I’ve worked on even go so far as wearing a badge that signifies their personality traits.

If a team is built with these suggestions in mind, they will work towards the goal of overall team success and not individual success. You may find a person or two who won’t follow this team building activity. If you run into this case, either remove the person from the team, or if this is not possible, give them a chance to see others make it work. People in general, want to do a good job and want their team to succeed.

On-going training for the team is essential and will keep the ideas fresh in their heads. It is also beneficial to have some bonding time like playing softball or some activity outside of work.

Another technique that is beneficial is to have a scoreboard that states how the team is doing towards making their goals. This should not be used to single out anyone, but to find areas where mentoring or training can help the overall team. Whenever the team beats its goals, the success should be celebrated. You’d be amazed how quickly the team will strive for high results.

There are two major types of teams: the ongoing team and the project team. We are going to concentrate on project teams since work that is of an ongoing nature is defined as an operation, not a project. The exception to this is in a matrix organization where the functional managers are in charge of the teams and loan them to the project manager for the duration of the project. IT team, the marketing-research team, and the accounts payable team.

Project teams are formed for a particular purpose; to complete the project. They usually disband when their mission is accomplished. The mission that binds them is the project’s mission and it falls upon the project manager to instill the leadership required to build followers of the project’s mission.

There are many benefits to be working on a project team. The social aspects as well as the opportunities for less experienced members to learn from the more experienced members along with the abilities for the more experienced members to mentor and learn from that experience. The synergy that the team provides allows them to make better decisions than if they were working in isolation. Everyone has a different skill set to bring to the table. As we all have learned “the whole is larger than the sum of its parts”.

I’d like to say a little bit about team leaders. Some schools of thought are that the subject matter experts should be the team leaders. As I said before, everyone has a different skill set to bring to the table and most people who concentrate on becoming the expert in a particular technology are usually introverts and aren’t the one you want to resolve conflict between team members, keep the team on track and keep them energized. These folks usually are better at people skills, negotiations and are typically extroverts. That’s why having a mixture of talent makes up the best team. I once heard a Vice President talk to me about his staff. He said he always looked for people that were not like him, giving him a well rounded staff that came out with better solutions than a bunch of “Yes” men would have.

Another possibility is to train people to take over in leadership positions. The fact is you are born with natural abilities and you can be trained, but in a crisis situation will usually revert back to what you were born with. It is also a very unique individual who is good at everything required to run the business.

In the end, have fun with what you do and do what fulfills you!

برنامه ای بسیار قدتمند در زمینه تبدیل ویدئو و صدا و همچنین ساخت DVD و تبدیل DVD به فرمت های دلخواه .

DVD Studio Pack برنامه ای قدرتمند است برای تبدیل فرمت های صوتی و تصویری به هم که شامل چهار ابزار مهم و کاربردی می شود که در یک پک و بسته جمع آوری گردیده است . این چهار ابزار عبارتند از : Aimersoft DVD Ripper , Aimersoft Video Converter , Aimersoft DVD Creator و Aimersoft Audio Converter . این ابزار به صورت خلی موثری به شما کمک می کنند تا فایل های ویدئویی و صوتی خود را به فرمت های دلخواه خود تبدیل کنید ، به شما کمک می کند تا دی وی دی های مورد نظر خورد را Rip کنید و همچنین فایل های مورد نظر خودتان را بر روب دیسک های DVD رایت کنید .

این برنامه قدرتمند به شما این امکان را می دهد که فایل های دی وی دی خود را به تمام فرمت های صوتی و تصوری دلخواهتان تیدیل کنید , می توانید فایل های را به فرمت هایی مانند :

MP4, AVI, MPG, MPEG, VOB, WMV, XviD, MOV, DAT, VOB, IFO, 3GP, 3GPP, ASF, FLV, WMA, M4A, MP3, AC3, WAV, limewire and YouTub

و غیره تبدیل کنید .

به صورت شما قادر خواهید بود که فایل های ویدئو ها و م موزییک های مورد علاقه خود را در وسایلی همچون iPod, Zune, iPhone, Apple TV, PSP, Xbox 360, PS3, Archos, iRiver, Creative Zen, PMP, Pocket PC, PDA و گوشی های همراهتان ببنید و یا گوش کنید .و لذت ببرید .

همچنین این برنامه دارای ابزاری برای بریدن , مرتب کردن , تنظیم کردن و همچنین اعمال افکت هایی بر روی فایل های تصویری می باشد . این برنامه با اینکه شامل ابزار هایی بسیار زیاد و قدرتمندی می باشد ولی در عین حال استفاده از آن بسیار آسان می باشد و هر کسی توانایی کار با آن را دارد .

لینک دانلود در ادامه مطلب

قیمت : 65$ دلار آمریکا

لینک دانلود DVD Studio Pack v1.1.58 با حجم 25 MB

پسود فایل : ندارد

تصاویری از محیط برنامه

سایت سازنده

سایت منبع : www.bia2abc.com

Touting it as "The Sound of Perfection", Creative has released a new portable media player called the ZEN X-Fi, the first PMP to use the companies X-Fi technology to improve audio quality of compressed audio.

The ZEN X-Fi looks a bit like an iPhone only thicker. Features of the device include:

• Available in 8GB, 16GB or 32GB capacity
• 2.5-inch TFT 16.7 million color LCD with 320 x240 resolution
• Video formats supported include: MJPEG, WMV, MPEG-4 (including both DivX and XviD)
• Audio formats supported include: MP3, WMA, AAC5, WAV (ADPCM), Audible 2, 3, 4
• Only supports JPEG for photo format but other formats, such as BMP, GIF, PNG and TIFF, can all be converted to JPEG using the included software
• FM radio with 32 presets
• Equalizer with 8 presets and 5 band custom EQ
• Organizer with calendar, contacts, and task list
• Built-in speaker for playback without headphones
• Built-in microphone for recording voice memos
• Alarm function
• Connects to your PC via USB 2.0
• Requires Windows XP (SP2 or higher), Windows XP Professional x64 Edition, or Windows Vista

The 16GB and 32 GB version also include Wi-Fi support (802.11 b/g) to support something called "True Mobility" which allows you to stream music and photos from your PC wirelessly to your ZEN X-Fi device, even if you're not at home. I assume that means that the software sets up a web server on your PC that the ZEN X-Fi connects to across the Internet, so if you're worried about privacy and security you might want to wait for a few reviews to come out first that will hopefully address this.

The 8GB version is available for $149.99, the 16GB for $199.99, and the 32GB for $279.99. Both the 16GB and 32GB are available right now, and the 8GB will be released a bit later but is available for pre-order now.

For more info about the 8GB version check out the official product page here.

For more info about the 16GB or 32GB version check out the official product page here.

[Via Engadget]

Temporary: Every project should have a definite start and end dates. A project may last few month(s) or few year(s).

Unique: The product, service or result should not be repeated.

Product:

Service:

Result:

-Moderator

PMP is an acronym for Project Management Professional. This certification is issued by PMI i.e., Project Management Institute.

PMI conducts a four hour computer based MCQ (multiple choice questions) exam to test the candidates and those who passed will be issued PMP certification.

PMP certification credentials demonstrate a proficiency in project management leadership skills, and as a result are able to command salaries that exceed those of their non-credentialed counterparts.

To know more about PMI and PMP, please visit www.pmi.org .

-Posted by Moderator

Thế hệ máy PMP (Portable Multimedia Player - Máy giải trí đa phương tiện cầm tay) Samsung đang gây "xôn xao" trong giới trẻ bằng những cải tiến vượt trội.

Xem chi tiết...

Không giống như những thế hệ MP3 đã lỗi thời, Samsung PMP P2, S5, T10 được xem là đại diện tiêu biểu cho một thế hệ máy giải trí số mới của Samsung lại sở hữu rất nhiều tính năng: nghe nhạc, xem phim, xem hình ảnh, lưu trữ, ghi âm cùng các kết nối bluetooth thú vị. Trong đó, màn hình cảm ứng được trang bị trên P2 là yếu tố hấp dẫn nhất với người tiêu dùng và giúp P2 tỏa sáng trên
thị trường.

Datacast là một trong số những tính năng mới độc đáo trong các PMP này. Datacast hoạt động dựa trên phần mềm Samsung Media Studio, giúp chủ nhân có thể lưu trữ các thông tin, tin tức về lĩnh vực mình quan tâm hoặc các bài nhạc, đoạn phim yêu thích trên các website và có thể xem lại vào bất kỳ thời điểm nào.

Là bạn song hành cùng giới trẻ ở mọi lúc mọi nơi, các Samsung PMP còn mang đến những giá trị kết nối thú vị. Khi đang tận hưởng những giai điệu hay, nếu bất chợt có điện thoại gọi tới, thông qua kết nối Bluetooth giữa Samsung PMP vả điện thoại, chủ nhân vẫn có thể nghe, nhận trực tiếp cuộc gọi ngay trên máy PMP. Âm nhạc sẽ được tạm ngưng để phục vụ cho cuộc nói chuyện và sau khi cuộc
điện thoại dứt, bản nhạc dang dở lại được tiếp tục. Ngoài ra, sử dụng tai nghe bluetooth giúp chủ nhân có thể chia sẻ gu nghe nhạc của mình với bạn bè và người xung quanh.

Mặc dù bộ ba sản phẩm chỉ là mang tính “mở đường” cho một thế hệ PMP mới song nó đã khẳng định được vị trí của Samsung trên thị trường máy giải trí số cầm tay và tạo được sức hút lớn với giới trẻ năng động, có cá tính và thích sự hiện đại. Trên bước đường phát triển thị phần PMP của mình, Samsung sẽ mang đến cho người tiêu dùng nhiều sản phẩm độc đáo. Dự kiến trong 6 tháng cuối năm hãng sẽ cho ra mắt thêm các PMP hoàn hảo hơn nữa.

Uncertainty

Lack of knowledge of future events

Goals of PRM

To identify project risks and develop strategies which either significantly reduce them or take steps to avoid them.

Opportunity

The probability those outcomes will be favorable.

Risk

The probability those outcomes will be unfavorable.

Project Risk

Is the cumulative effect of the chances of uncertain occurrences adversely affecting project objectives.

Risk Factors

1.      Risk Event – Precisely what might happen to the detriment of the project

2.      Risk Probability – How likely the event is to occur

3.      Amount at Stake – The severity of the consequences

Probability

Probability = Frequency of relevant events

                      Total number of possible events      

Risk Event Status (criterion value or ranking)

Risk Event status = risk probability x amount at stake

Processes

1.      Risk Identification

Determining which risks are likely to affect the project and documenting the characteristics of each.  Can be classified as:

a.      Scope – Risk associated with changes of scope or the subsequent need for “fixes” to achieve the required technical deliverables.

b.      Quality – Failure to complete tasks to the required level of technical or quality performance

c.       Schedule – Failure to complete tasks within the estimated time limits, or risks associated with dependency network logic

d.      Cost – Failure to complete tasks within the estimated budget allowances

2.      Risk Quantification

Evaluating risks and risk interactions to assess the range of possible project outcomes.

3.      Risk Response Development

Defining enhancement steps for opportunities and responses to threats.

4.      Risk Response Control

Responding to changes in risk over the course of the project.

Identification

1.      Inputs

a.      Product description

Risk depends on the nature of the product.  Proven technology has less risk than products requiring innovation and invention.

b.      Other Planning outputs

Review outputs from the processes for possible risks, e.g., WBS, cost estimates and schedule duration’s, staffing plan, procurement management plan.

c.       Historical information

2.      Tools and Techniques

a.      Checklists

b.      Flowcharting

Helps understand the cause and effects of risks.

3.      Outputs

a.      Sources of Risks

This includes such items as stakeholder actions, unreliable estimates, team turnover, changes in requirements, insufficiently skilled staff.

b.      Potential Risk Events

Precisely what might happen to the detriment of the project, such as natural disasters, requirement for development of new technology, etc.

c.       Risk symptoms

These sometimes are called triggers, early warning of an impending event, etc.

d.      Inputs to other processes

Risks can be inputs to other processes as constraints or assumptions.

Quantification

1.      Inputs

a.      Stakeholder risk tolerances

This provides a screen for both inputs and outputs to risk quantification.

b.      Sources of risk

c.       Potential risk events

d.      Cost Estimates

e.      Activity duration estimates

2.      Tools and Techniques

a.      Expected Monetary value

This is the product of risk event probability of occurring times the risk event value (could be a gain or loss).

b.      Statistical sums

This calculates the range of alternative project budgets from the cost estimates for individual work items.

c.       Simulation

The most common is Monte Carlo analysis, which is used to analyze the behavior or performance of the system. The results of a schedule simulation may be used to quantify the risk of various schedule alternatives, different project strategies, and different paths through the network or individual activities.

d.      Decision Tree

e.      Expert Judgment

3.      Outputs

a.      Opportunities to pursue, threats to respond to

This is a list of opportunities that should be pursued and threats that require attention.

b.      Opportunities to ignore, threats to accept

Responses to threats fall into the following categories:

·         Avoidance

Eliminating a specific threat, usually by eliminating the cause. The project management team can never eliminate all risk, but specific risk events can often be eliminated.

·         Mitigation

Reducing the expected monetary value of a risk by reducing the probability of occurrence, reducing the risk event value.

·         Acceptance

Accepting the consequences. Acceptance can be active (e.g. by developing a contingency plan to execute should the risk event occur) or passive (e.g., by accepting lower profit if some activities overrun).

1.      Inputs

a.      Opportunities to pursue, threats to respond to

List opportunities that should be pursued and threats that require attention.

b.      Opportunities to ignore, threats to accept

The duration of most activities will be significantly influenced by the resources assigned to them.

2.      Tools and Techniques

a.      Procurement

Acquiring outside sources for services and equipment is an appropriate tool.

b.      Contingency Planning

Making plans to take action if a risk arises.

c.       Alternative Strategies

Avoid risk by changing the planned approach.

d.      Insurance

3.      Outputs

a.      Risk Management Plan

This documents the procedures to be used to manage risk throughout the project. It should cover who is responsible for managing various areas of risk, how the initial identification and quantification outputs will be maintained, how contingency plans will be implemented and how reserves will be allocated.

b.      Inputs to other processes

Contingencies and plans must be feed back to other processes.

c.       Contingency plans

d.      Reserves

Examples are management reserve, schedule reserve, and contingency reserve.

e.      Contractual agreements

May be entered into for insurance, services, and other items as appropriate in order to avoid or mitigate threats. Contractual terms and conditions will have a significant effect on the degree of risk deduction.

Risk Response Control

1.      Inputs

a.      Risk management plan

b.      Actual risk events

When an event occurs, project management must recognize it so that the response plan can be implemented.

c.       Additional Risk identification

As performance is reported additional risks may surface and should be identified.

2.      Tools and Techniques

a.      Workarounds

These are unplanned responses to negative risk events.

b.      Additional risk response development

If event was not anticipated or effect greater than expected, then it may be necessary to repeat the response development and quantification process.

3.      Outputs

a.      Corrective Action

This is primarily the act of performing the planned risk response.

b.      Updates to the risk management plan

1.      Brainstorming

Is used extensively in formative project planning and can also be used to advantage to identify and postulate risk scenarios for a particular project. It is a simple but effective attempt to help people think creatively in a group setting without feeling inhibited or being criticized by others.

The rules are that each member must try to build on the ideas offered by preceding comments. No criticism or disapproving verbal or nonverbal behaviors are allowed. The intent is to encourage as many ideas as possible, which may in turn, trigger the ideas of others.

2.      Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis seeks to place a value on the effect of change of a single variable within a project by analyzing that effect on the project plan. It is the simplest form of risk analysis. Uncertainty and risk are reflected by defining a likely range of variation for each component of the original base case estimate. In practice such an analysis is only done for those variables which have a high impact on cost, time or economic return, and to which the project is most sensitive.

Some of the advantages of sensitivity analysis include impressing management that there is a range of possible outcomes, decision making is more realistic, though perhaps more complex. And the relative importance of each variable examined is readily apparent. Some weaknesses are that variables are treated individually, limiting the extent to which combinations of variables can be assessed, and a sensitivity diagram gives no indication of anticipated probability of occurrence.

3.      Probability Analysis

Probability analysis overcomes the limitations of sensitivity analysis by specifying a probability distribution for each variable, and then considering situations where any or all of these variables can be changed at the same time. Defining the probability of occurrence of any specific variable may be quite difficult, particularly as political or commercial environments can change quite rapidly.

As with sensitivity analysis, the range of variation is subjective, but ranges for many time and cost elements of a project estimate should be skewed toward overrun, due to the natural optimism or omission of the estimator.

4.      Delphi Method

The basic concept is to derive a consensus using a panel of experts to arrive at a convergent solution to a specific problem. This is particularly useful in arriving at probability assessments relating to future events where the risk impacts are large and critical. The first and vital step is to select a panel of individuals who have experience in the area at issue. For best results, the panel members should not know each other identity and the process should be conducted with each at separate locations.

The responses, together with opinions and justifications, are evaluated and statistical feedback is furnished to each panel member in the next iteration. The process is continued until group responses converge to s specific solution.

5.      Monte Carlo

The Monte Carlo method, simulation by means of random numbers, provides a powerful yet simple method of incorporating probabilistic data. Basic steps are:

a.      Assess the range of the variables being considered and determine the probability distribution most suited to each.

b.      For each variable within its specific range, select a value randomly chosen, taking account of the probability distribution for the occurrence of the variable.

c.       Run a deterministic analysis using the combination of values selected for each one of the variables.

d.      Repeat steps 2 and 3 a number of times to obtain the probability distribution of the result. Typically between 100 and 1000 iterations are required depending on the number of variables and the degree of confidence required.

6.      Decision Tree Analysis

A feature of project work is that a number of options are typically available in the course of reaching the final results. An advantage of decision tree analysis is that it forces consideration of the probability of each outcome. Thus, the likelihood of failure is quantified and some value is place on each decision. This form of risk analysis is usually applied to cost and time considerations, both in choosing between different early investment decisions, and later in considering major changes with uncertain outcomes during project implementation.

7.      Utility Theory

Utility theory endeavors to formalize management’s attitude towards risk, an approach that is appropriate to decision tree analysis for the calculation of expected values, and also for the assessment of results from sensitivity and probability analyses. However, in practical project work Utility Theory tends to be viewed as rather theoretical.

8.      Decision Theory

Is a technique for assisting in reaching decisions under uncertainty and risk. All decisions are based to some extent on uncertain forecasts. Given the criteria selected by the decision-maker, Decision Theory points to the best possible course whether or not the forecasts are accurate.

The Quality Risk

This risk can best be expressed by the question: “What if the project fails to perform as expected during its operational life?” This may well be the result of less than satisfactory quality upon project completion, and is especially true if quality is not given due attention during the project life cycle. Since the in-service life of the resulting product is typically much longer than the period required to plan and produce that product, any quality shortcomings and their effects may surface over a prolonged period of time.

Consequently, of all the project objectives, conformance to quality requirement is the one most remembered long after cost and schedule performance have faded into the past. It follows that quality management can have the most impact on the long-term actual or perceived success of the project.

Risk Perceptions

1.      People do not, in fact, demand zero risk. They take risk every day, both consciously and subconsciously, and they are willing and able to take benefit/risk decisions, as in driving and speeding.

2.      Peoples’ judgment of degrees of risk is not, however, coincident with most methodologies for measuring risk statistically. The public may greatly underestimate familiar risks (e.g. driving) while greatly overestimating unfamiliar risks (e.g. buying a home near a nuclear facility).

3.      A variety of emotional, not logical, factors control risk perceptions:

a.      Primary is the sense of personal control and the ability to mange the risk

b.      Secondary are qualities of familiarity and conversely, dread. The greater the unfamiliarity and potential for connection to gruesome, the more it is likely to be judged as highly risky and therefore unacceptable.

4.      Once established, risk perceptions are extremely hard to change. New information may be absorbed by the intellect, but it is not readily absorbed at an emotional level.

5.      Risk perceptions reside fundamentally at an emotional level.

This is the process concerned with identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risk. (PMBOK)

It is also the art and science of identifying, assessing and responding to project risk throughout the life of a project and in the best interests of its objectives. Now in all of the projects I’ve managed in my 30 years of experience, there has always been risk.

The trick to the game is to figure out what the risk tolerance of your stakeholders is. How much risk are they willing to put up with and how much do they want solid fallback plans for?

In some cases, a level of uncertainty is acceptable and the level of contingency planning can be as simple as put another person on the project, or slip the schedule.

Sometimes it’s not so simple, and the stakeholders want to know the monetary value or expected value of the probability of a risk occurring. The basic level for excepted value is:

Expected monetary value (EMV) = probability * impact

The expected value result can either be added to the costs of the project or subtracted from the project’s profit. The project profit or cost is usually referred to as the baseline. The baseline is the initial approved cost or profit structure for the project.

Project EMV = project cost + risk expected value – opportunity expected value

                                    -Or-

                                 = project value/profit – risk expected value + opportunity expected value

Remember, risk increases the cost and decreases the profit; and opportunity increases the profit and decreases the cost. Risks are bad things that may (often do) happen to us on projects, sometimes expressed as “threats”. Opportunities are good things that may happen to us on projects and may enhance the overall situation.

With that in mind, let’s work through a few examples.

Example: You have a project with total planned costs of $100,000. What information of value to an expected monetary analysis do you have so far? The baseline ($100,000). Now with that bit of information, let’s add some more considerations and complexity to it. For this same project, with total planned costs of $100,000, there is a risk that one of your team members, Matthew, will be crowned Prince of Arabia! If that happens, we’ll lose $8,000 in the process of replacing him on the team.  Now what new information do you have that helps you out? You have the Risk Impact ($8000).

After checking with highly placed sources within Arabia, we have learned that there is about a 60% chance that Matthew will be approved as the new Prince. What new information do we have now? We have the probability (60%).

Now for this project we know that the cost is $100,000, and there is a 60% chance we’ll lose Matthew, costing the project $8000. What is the Expected Value of this risk happening to our project? In this instance, we are looking at the expected value of the risk. It has a potential cost of $8000. But, since the probability of it happening is only 60%, its EMV = $8000*.6 = $4800. We have now calculated the EMV for this risk event. We have to apply the EMV in the context of the project as a whole. What is the EMV of the cost of the whole project? The answer is $104,800 ($100,000 + $4,800).

We also need to consider any opportunities which may offset the cost of the risk. For this project, in addition to the potential concerns of Matthew’s leaving, we have just received some good news! We may have the opportunity of a bonus from the customer, which would reduce costs by $20,000. The chance of us getting the bonus is 30%. What is the expected value of this chance? It is $6000, 30%*$20,000. Are you still with me here?

Now we have a lot more information for the stakeholders. The project will cost $100,000. There is a risk of losing Matthew at an additional cost of $8000, but there is only a 60% chance of that occurring. There is also an opportunity for a bonus of $20,000, with a chance of 30% of that occurring. With all of these considerations, what is the Expected Monetary Value of this Project? It is $98,800. This is calculated by taking the cost baseline of $100,000 + $4800 (risk of losing Matthew) and subtracting the EMV of the opportunity because it will affect our costs. That is $6000. So the total Expected Monetary Value of this project is $98,800.  That incorporates both known risks and opportunities.

For our project we now have a new perspective. Nancy from accounting finally came through with the numbers on how we are expected to profit from the project. Specifically, she was able to establish that the project will yield about $210,000 in revenues. That will be offset by the cost of $100,000, but management is asking for a risk analysis. To review, what is the baseline profit of the project? It is $110,000 ($210,000 - $100,000).

Next we need to take into account the risk of losing Matthew which would increase cost by $8000. There is also an opportunity of a bonus that will increase revenues. Let’s list our information:

·         The project has a cost baseline of $100,000

·         Revenues are anticipated at $210,000

·         There is a 60% chance we’ll lose Matthew at a cost of $8000

·         There is a 30% chance we’ll earn a bonus of $20,000

·         For a few kickers, there is a 10% chance we’ll hit obstacles increasing costs by $30,000

·         There’s a %70 chance we’ll have a legal fight costing $10,000

With all of this new data, what is the new EMV? It is $100,000 (baseline cost) - $4800 ($8000 * %60) + $6000 ($20,000*30%)-$3000 ($30,000* %10) - $7000 ($10,000*70) = $101,200

So from a risk perspective, this project is worth doing.

Zen X-Fi dolazi u tri kapacita: od 8, 16 i 32 GB. Prednjim delom dominira ekran dijagonale 2,5 inča pored koga su smešteni kotrolni dugmići, a na gornjem delu se nalazi ulaz za SDHC memorijske kartice i mikrofon.

Modeli kapaciteta 16 i 32 GB opremljeni su i bežičnom WiFi mrežom, kao što je najavljeno da će biti. Na listi podržanih datoteka nalaze se MP3, WMA i AAC tipovi audio datoteka, dok je video moguće gledati u ekstenzijama WMV, MPEG-4 SP/XviD i motion JPEG. Naravno, tu je i FM radio.

Zen X-Fi trenutno je dostupan samo na azijskom tržištu ali uskoro ga treba očekivati i na tlu Evrope.

-encore

Just checked my email and both items have been dispatched so by this time next week I'll be gadget boy and my Mrs will have dissoned me.  LOL I'll take some snaps and write up my initial thoughts as I get to grips with it.  Also need to look at selling my old creative zen touch - I've started monitoring Ebay to see what they are getting sold for.

Roll on next week.

A work breakdown structure (WBS) is very similar to a family tree. It maps out the deliverables of the project, with sub deliverables and activities stemming in a tree format. One of my favorite ways to do the WBS is with yellow post it’s so you can move them around to where they belong. Once I worked on a project where we had to tape together all of the papers that included the post it’s and it was at least 25 pages. This served us well when we showed management the magnitude of the scope of the project!

Doing this on large sheets of paper is useful so you can capture the finished product. A Guide to the PMBOK describes a WBS this way: “A WBS is a deliverable oriented grouping of project components that organizes and defines the total scope of the project; work not defined in the WBS is outside of the project”.

A Work Breakdown Structure is break down the work packages to enable you to roll them back up to a schedule that is complete. A work package is usually no more than 40 hours.

The WBS should detail the full scope of work needed to complete the project. Accuracy and completeness are required when composing your WBS.

Decomposition is one of the tools you will use when preparing your WBS. You should be able to break down the deliverables to a point where you can easily plan, execute, control and close out the project deliverables. Each work package should be able to be easily estimated in the Activity Definition Process.

You can think of this process in 4 major steps:

1.    Identify all of the major deliverables. The PMBOK is clear on noting that the deliverables should be defined according to the way the project is organized. One way is to organize a project in phases. The phases become the first level of decomposition, followed by the deliverables.

2.    Step2 involves estimating cost and duration. If that cannot be done, then you have to decompose further until the work package can be estimated. I usually use a work package of 20-40 hours at the most. Not all deliverables will have the same level of decomposition. In any case, a schedule cannot be made until the WBS is complete and has estimates that are as accurate as possible.

3.    Step 3 involves identifying components that make up the deliverables.

4.    Step 4 is the verification step. You need to determine that each component listed is clear, complete and necessary to fulfill the requirements of the deliverable. Also, you need to easily add up all the estimates, budget and assignments to create a solid schedule.

A WBS looks very much like a flow chart. The goal is to break down the work so that each work package can be assigned to a specific person for accountability and the Project Manager can easily manage the schedule knowing that all parts of the project have been broken down to their smallest part.

Each Work package is assigned a unique identifier and these are documented in the WBS dictionary. The dictionary includes a description of the work package, costs, budgets, schedule dates, resource assignments and activity descriptions.

This process sounds like a lot of work, but it is a known fact that the more you plan, the better you will be in the end.  I like to use SharePoint to keep this document and keep for the project records.

The WBS plays a major part of Project Management. For those taking the PMP certification course, I was told that if you didn’t know the answer to a question WBS probably was it!

"Um programa é um grupo de projetos relacionados gerenciados de modo coordenado para a obtenção de benefícios e controle que não estariam disponíveis se eles fossem gerenciados individualmente."

Uma forma fácil de representar um portfólio de projetos é montando uma estrutura hierárquica, conforme a seguir:

                                          Portfólio
                                               |
                -----------------------------------------------------------
                |                              |                            |
          Portfólios            Projetos          Programas
                |                                                           |
      -------------------------                                 ------------------------
      |                       |                                 |                       |
   Projetos     Programas              Programas       Projetos
                               |
                  -------------------------
                  |                       |
           Projetos         Projetos

Perceba que:
- Um Portfólio pode ser composto por um ou vários Portfólios; um ou vários Programas; podendo também, ter somado a sua composição um ou vários Projetos; além de outros trabalhos que podem fazer parte da estratégia da empresa - não sendo considerado necessariamente um projeto;
- Um Programa, por sua vez, pode ser composto por um ou vários Programas e Projetos;
- E para saber sobre Projetos, leia: Reconhecendo um Projeto;

Por ser estratégico, é importante que este portfólio fique sob a responsabilidade do PMO - leia: Qual a finalidade de um PMO?.

Sob a gestão do PMO, este fará o monitoramento e controle contínuo da priorização destes projetos, fazendo com que o portfólio atinja os objetivos estratégicos da empresa.

O agrupamento de projetos, de acordo com esta proposta, vem sendo mundialmente apontada como positiva. Hoje, grandes empresas brasileiras, como Petrobras, Natura e TV Cultura, gerenciam seus projetos desta forma.

Fábio Gomes.

The earned value Management involves developing these key values for each schedule activity, work package, or control account:

Planned value (PV). PV is the budgeted cost for the work scheduled to be completed on an activity or WBS component up to a given point in time.

Earned value (EV). EV is the budgeted amount for the work actually completed on the schedule activity or WBS component during a given time period.

Actual cost (AC). AC is the total cost incurred in accomplishing work on the schedule activity or WBS component during a given time period. This AC must correspond in definition and coverage to whatever was budgeted for the PV and the EV (e.g., direct hours only, direct costs only, or all costs including indirect costs).

Cost variance (CV). CV equals earned value (EV) minus actual cost (AC). The cost variance at the end of the project will be the difference between the budget at completion (BAC) and the actual amount spent. Formula: CV= EV - AC

Schedule variance (SV). SV equals earned value (EV) minus planned value (PV). Schedule variance will ultimately equal zero when the project is completed because all of the planned values will have been earned. Formula: SV = EV - PV

These two values, the CV and SV, can be converted to efficiency indicators to reflect the cost and schedule performance of any project.

Cost performance index (CPI). A CPI value less than 1.0 indicates a cost overrun of the estimates. A CPI value greater than 1.0 indicates a cost underrun of the estimates. CPI equals the ratio of the EV to the AC. The CPI is the most commonly used cost-efficiency indicator. Formula: CPI = EV/AC

Schedule performance index (SPI). The SPI is used, in addition to the schedule status to predict the completion date and is sometimes used in conjunction with the CPI to forecast the project completion estimates. SPI equals the ratio of the EV to the PV. Formula: SPI = EV/PV

Forecasting

Forecasting includes making estimates or predictions of conditions in the project's future based on information and knowledge available at the time of the forecast. Forecasts are generated, updated, and reissued based on work performance information provided as the project is executed and progressed.

BAC is equal to the tota